Dr. Arnd Bernaerts

P. O. Box 730462, D-22124 Hamburg

A.B.; P. O. Box 730462; D-22124 Hamburg

Subject: Fourth IPCC Climate Report, or: any improvement since founding of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change its establishment by WMO & UNEP in 1988?

 1st February 2007

 Dear Website-Visitor,


Global warming is one of the hottest topics nowadays. The forthcoming Climate-Change report is nearly certain to conclude that there is at least a 90 percent chance that human-caused emissions are the main cause of warming since 1950, which will continue with higher temperatures of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius until the end of this century. Can 500 leading scientists be mistaken after submitting the fourth report in two decades?

 While it is not difficulty to see that after a global cooling from war winter 1939/40 until the 1970th the average temperatures have increased significantly, the reliability of the two other essertainments should be greeted with cautious. IPCC still does not acknowledge, that the oceans and seas are the absolute driving force of the climate system (FN 1). The naval war thesis is presented and discussed by this website to support this claim as indicated in the graph.

 The immediate reaction of the oceans to naval war forcing should be not coming so much as surprise. A thin sea surface-layer of just three metres holds as much heat as the air column of 10’000 metres above the sea. Cooling this three metres layer by 1ºC, are enough to increase the atmosphere over its total heights correspondingly by 1ºC. And the heat capacity of the atmosphere is to an overwhelming degree dependent on the ‘ocean water’ in the air. Not talking in the first place of the oceans and seas when looking for climate changes, is not very convincing. The naval war thesis with huge and decisive ‘field experiments’ during WWI and WWII could make IPCC rethink its too narrow approach over the last 20 years.

Any questions? Please feel free to evaluate to material here presented.

 With best regards

Arnd Bernaerts   


(1) Arnd Bernaerts: “Climate should have been defined as  ‘the continuation of the oceans by other means’”; in: Letter to the Editor, NATURE, Volume 360, 26 November 1992, page 292.